Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan: A Strategic Pact or a Preemptive Defense Move?

By: Abdul Latif Mousa

The key indicators of the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani agreement suggest that it constitutes a defense pact within the broader Islamic strategic sphere, aimed at joint defense while drawing on energy resources and expertise in joint defense, infrastructure development, economic development, and digital transformation in the service of the wider Islamic sphere.

Furthermore, the facts indicate that this joint defense agreement could serve as a key foundation for developing effective strategies and plans to combat terrorism and extremist ideologies stemming from weak state institutions, instability, militia dominance, and armed groups that challenge state authority.

The changes the region is undergoing in terms of the structure of conflict require serious efforts to establish such alliances. The primary purpose of these alliances is to counter the logic of armed factions and their combat doctrines, as well as their cross-border threats and disregard for political and diplomatic norms and values. These alliances also aim to combat terrorism and extremism more broadly in order to serve the national interests of each country.

However, the fundamental question remains regarding the effectiveness of this alliance in the face of the major challenges confronting the region. For example, if Pakistan were to come under attack from India, would Saudi Arabia be obligated to come to Pakistan’s defense under the agreement? Or, if Greece and Turkey were to clash, would Pakistan be obligated to come to Turkey’s defense? If Pakistan were to come under attack from Afghanistan, could any of these countries with a mutual defense pact be drawn into another prolonged conflict in Afghanistan—from which the United States has only recently managed to extricate itself?

Then there is the practical question: Are any of these countries capable of intervening in an imminent conflict with Israel, a U.S. ally? This is particularly pertinent in the case of Turkey, given the almost daily statements issued by ministers in Netanyahu’s government indicating a looming conflict with Turkey, not to mention the possibility of a confrontation with Turkey over influence in Syria. To what extent is this alliance serious about confronting and countering the threats facing countries in the Islamic world, particularly the ongoing bombardment of Gaza and attacks in Lebanon, or about helping the legitimate governments of Iraq and Yemen rid themselves of militias that have overshadowed the authority and governance of the state over the years?

What is this alliance’s stance on the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, as well as Iran’s threats, bombardments, and violations of the sovereignty of the Gulf states and Jordan?

Some experts on regional strategic conflict argue that, regardless of the aforementioned implications of establishing this joint defense alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, the true and fundamental purpose of creating this alliance lies in two key aspects. The first is to confront the exceptional and extremely serious threats facing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by countering the grave threats posed by Iran and its militias, specifically the threat from Yemen—that is, from the Houthis, who have recently targeted Saudi Arabia with severe strikes, particularly against the energy sector and Aramco, the largest energy facility in the region, as well as threats involving attacks on the Kingdom’s infrastructure, economy, facilities, and airports.

Likewise, the United States has endorsed this coalition’s efforts to safeguard energy security in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and counter Houthi threats to ships and oil tankers—particularly by preventing Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels. The U.S. initiative involves engaging countries such as Turkey and Pakistan in this mission to offset the cost of these operations. It also involves entrusting the task of striking Iraqi armed factions that have defied the disarmament resolution after September 31, once the Iraqi government has withdrawn legal recognition from those factions, as well as urging the countries of this coalition to assist Damascus should it agree to confront Hezbollah and eliminate the threats it poses to Israel in southern Lebanon.

Regardless of the fundamental implications of establishing this alliance, some experts on regional conflict strategy argue that its primary purpose lies in its role as a preemptive deterrent against the geopolitical conflict scenarios the region may face following the U.S.-Israeli-Iranian war and in attempts to prevent the conflict from escalating to the point of causing fundamental changes to the region’s geopolitical landscape.

For instance, after Turkey exhausted its options to mitigate the conflict’s repercussions by leveraging the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), both domestically and in Syria, to strengthen the Damascus government, it has sought to use Damascus as a defensive measure in its conflict with Israel, a concern frequently cited by Israeli officials. Additionally, concerns about Turkey’s potential partition in the event of an Iranian defeat, as expressed by members of Turkey’s security establishment, have prompted Turkey to seek Saudi financial and economic support to address its domestic crises.

For its part, Saudi Arabia needs Turkey’s influence in the areas of militarization and regional security, as well as its relations with Islamic countries and nuclear-armed Pakistan. This will help Saudi Arabia confront major changes, particularly shifts in the geopolitical landscape, and counter threats such as the Muslim Brotherhood, extremist ideologies, and the “Greater Israel” project, which it perceives as posing a risk to its future national security.

Pakistan also requires deterrence strategies to address fundamental threats posed by radical Islam, including challenges from Afghanistan, anti-Pakistan groups supported by Afghanistan, and its longstanding adversary, India. Additionally, Pakistan must manage the domestic repercussions of internal conflict in Iran. Therefore, Pakistan relies on the regional influence and support of both Turkey and Saudi Arabia to confront future threats to its national security.

In conclusion, readers can draw conclusions about the strategic implications of establishing the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani alliance and assess its true nature: Is it a joint defense alliance or a step toward future strategic deterrence?